Only last night a friend asked me whether Istanbul was safe to visit; he was planning to take the family in April. I was busy putting together enthusiastic recommendations this morning when the news broke that a suicide bomber, Hell-bent on Paradise, had exploded his vile self near Istanbul’s Sultanahmet Mosque, targeting a group of German tourists and leaving 10 dead and 15 injured. The attack has not only taken innocent lives and done its bit to further destabilise a dangerously febrile Turkey; it also makes it increasingly likely that visitor numbers will plummet this year. My friend, like many others, is doubtless having second thoughts about visiting.
In the light of this latest outrage, and as a good number of people have recently asked about the advisability of visiting Turkey, now’s the time to give their questions the detailed considerations that they deserve:
- WILL THERE BE MORE BOMBS?
Today’s attack in Istanbul follows those in Turkey’s capital, Ankara, in October 2015 when two suicide bombers caused over 100 deaths and 400 injuries at a peace march in October 2015.
The aim of the Ankara attacks, widely assumed to be the work of IS, seems to have been to stir old hatreds between the Turkish state and the country’s Kurdish minority – by targeting an event aimed to promote peace between the two. The IS monsters take comfort from the fact that Turks and Kurds are at each others’ throats; any accommodation between the two would allow Turks and Kurds to combine their military efforts against IS. In this sense, Ankara was a strategic attack without direct implications for visitors to the country – except perhaps for those planning to attend political rallies where a raised risk of violence exists.
The Sultanahmet attack has changed all that by deliberately targeting tourists. It must be presumed that there will be further such attempts, not least because of the sheer number of Syrian refugees – some jihadis secreted among them – now in Turkey. Is it safer to stay at home? Probably. To visit Athens instead? Probably. Is there a case to be made for risking a visit to Istanbul, at once enjoying the city while showing solidarity with the people, given that the statistical likelihood of being caught up in a terror attack remains vanishingly small? A heartfelt yes.
- HOW ELSE MIGHT JIHADIS THREATEN ME ELSEWHERE IN TURKEY?
IS territory in Syria abuts southern Turkey, and it is said that many jihadi elements are moving freely in Turkey.
The Foreign Office now advises against 1. all travel along Turkey’s border areas with Syria and 2. all but essential travel in the provinces which abut the border. Point 1, say within 10km of the border, is unquestionably good advice as there have been suicide bombings and here the dread prospect of kidnap and removal into Syria must be considered real.
Point 2 is less clear; some reputable Istanbul-based travel companies continue to take cultural groups to cities like Antep and Urfa some 30 kilometres from the Syrian border, and magnificent ancient sites like Göbekli Tepe, confident in the safety of their clients. Hmmm. Is it mere scare-mongering to suppose that some jihadis might attempt a cross-border swoop to kidnap western tourists and smuggle them into Syria, there to face unimaginable atrocities? Extremely unlikely, but possible.
There have, of course, been foiled attempts to behead people in places like Australia. I have never felt the least threatened in Turkey, not even at any time over the last year as the security situation deteriorated. Turks are passionate and proud about their reputation for hospitality; they would be horrified that any such atrocity should befall any foreign guest, and I personally know of many Turks who would put themselves at grievous risk to protect their guests.
No travel advisories currently apply to the rest of the country, including the east, where I hope (numbers permitting) to be leading a tour next June in Van, Dogubeyazit and Kars en route to Georgia for Jon Baines Tours. That said…
- NEED I ALSO BE CONCERNED ABOUT KURDISH SEPARATISM?
On the night of 23 December 2015 a Kurdish terror group attacked Istanbul’s second airport with mortars, killing a cleaner and wounding others.
For six months Turkish forces have been waging an increasingly bloody campaign with Kurdish separatists in the east of the country, especially in and around the regional capital Diyarbakir. The government’s reckless actions have done for a ceasefire which had held for years. In a statement claiming responsibility for this reprisal the group then condemned the governing AK Party and its so-called collaborators for the destruction in the east, adding ‘As of now we won’t be responsible for the safety of international airlines that fly to Turkey, or for foreign tourists’. This is obviously a chilling statement for any prospective travellers, though doubts exist over this splinter group’s ability to deliver on this threat (the airport in question was closed at the time of the mortar attack). Kurdish separatists also recognise that many western capitals, Paris, Berlin and London among them, have long been havens for Kurdish exiles, and know that any such atrocity would instantly drain reserves of international goodwill to their cause.
- WHAT OF THE MIGRANTS?
Vast numbers of migrants from the Middle East and Central Asia are on the move in Turkey, with not only radicalised Islamists but also criminal elements among them.
It is true that a great many migrants, perhaps even millions, have lately crossed into Turkey or have left the country’s refugee camps. Resident Turks advise that some urban areas, especially south of Basmane Station in Izmir, are now considered unsafe due to the presence of newly established foreign criminal gangs. But this aggressive manifestation of the migrant crisis should have no implications for visitors who heed local advice in the cities (as they should in any urban area) or who keep to smaller towns and the surrounding countryside.
- WILL THE TURKS GO TO WAR WITH RUSSIA?
Turkish forces shot down a Russian jet above Turkey’s border with Syria in November 2015, and more recently there was an altercation between a Turkish fishing boat and a Russian naval vessel near the Greek Aegean island of Lemnos.
It is worrying that our NATO partner chooses to tangle with Russia which has responded with various economic measures, most noticeably cancelling all package holiday flights to Turkey. Most commentators judge that neither side means to push this towards outright hostilities.
- WHAT OF THE IMPRISONMENT OF WRITERS AND JOURNALISTS?
Turkey’s ongoing silencing of voices critical of the governing AK Party and of President Erdogan, writers and journalists especially, is persuading some visitors to put off visits to the country.
If the security issues don’t deter you, then the moral case might just do so. There have lately been appalling instances of repression, not least when the courts – with the President’s enthusiastic backing – imprisoned two journalists for exposing the clandestine delivery of arms by Turkey’s security forces to Syrian opposition forces, perhaps even to IS itself. The imprisonment of many writers and journalists and the closure of news outlets critical of the governing party constitutes a disgraceful and sustained assault on Turkey’s established pluralities, and one that western visitors will rightly deplore.
But should they therefore stay away? Any such boycott, while principled, would no doubt be dismissed by the Turkish authorities as unwarranted interference in the country’s internal affairs. Plenty of Turks agree that the suppression of the country’s independent media is scandalous; but the understandable concern of those in the huge tourism sector is that any such attempt to support the country’s beleaguered writers and journalists ends up leading to job losses among tourism workers.
- SO. WOULD YOU GO?
Turks have always been exceptional hosts; and at this time the country needs its guests more than ever. There may be a time, God forbid, when terror engulfs Turkey. At the time of writing, however, the vast majority of visitors have a fabulous time there. Yes.
And may the suicide bombers go to Hell.